Day Three analysis

I have been a bit busy the past couple of days, some things kept me away from the monitor. Trust me, I am not complaining! It's good to take a break once in a while. Although I have only recently started 'penning' down what I analyze, I have been trading for quite some time. So once in a while I just step away from the computer and relax with family and friends. This was one of those occasions. And the way I trade helps me continue living this way.

Anyway looking back on my analysis of Day Two, I had given this call:

"Sell Hindalco, Entry 112. Target 106, 104. Stop Loss 114.

Hindalco is coming out with their quarterly results today. I don't know what to expect out of it but I hope that it will be bad. Yes I'm quite the pessimist. So even if the results are good 114 should be a good point to exit. Yes it is a gamble that i'm willing to take since the risk is very minimum."

Hindalco hit a high of 111.4 and is trading at 102.3. Need I say more? Maybe, next target: 97.

Here are some of the stocks that I might be trading with on Monday:

1. Buy Infosys, Entry: 2410-2420. Target: 2540+. Stop Loss: 2360. ETA: 2 weeks.

Well it's quite simple really, N. R. Naranyan Murthy!

Yup he's back folks and the stock already accounted for his return on the 31st of May. Infy opened at 2342, day low, and never looked back, touching a day high of 2434.9 and closing at 2411.7 (that's +63).

OBVIOUSLY it was a coincidence, right? Right? Next.

2. Sell BHEL, Entry: 201-202. Target 197.5. Stop Loss: 204.3. ETA: 1/2 days.

3. Buy RelianceInfra, Entry 360. Target 370. Stop Loss: 356. ETA: 3 days.

I don't feel too good about RelInfra though. If the market starts falling you can see levels of 350 and below on Infra in the next two trading sessions.

Good luck trading and may the market be with you ;)

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Day Two review - Tuesday, 28th May 2013

The market gave everyone a run for their money today. HeroMotoCo and BHEL gained big time and among the top Nifty gainers was ONGC! As mentioned in an earlier post, I covered one lot of ONGC at 330. That is a total profit of Rs. 8500.

I didn't trade today and I don't think I will be trading tomorrow either, but I will give out my calls for tomorrow. 

Today, I gave out these calls and one of them was almost spot on:

1. Buy BhartiArtl, Entry: 310. Target 320. Stop Loss: 304.

BhartiArtl

Bharti touched a day low of EXACTLY 310. Damn I love it when the entry and exit points are spot on. It makes your trades less risky and I believe it is almost always possible to get the perfect entry points. Anyway Bharti made a day high of 317.4 and closed at 314.8, which is still on track towards the target. Can hold for 320+ tomorrow.

2. Sell Hindalco, Entry 112. Target 106, 104. Stop Loss 114.

Hindalco

I gave a safe entry point of 112 even though Hindalco didn't go over 111 today. For those who actually sold Hindalco futures at around 110, tomorrow might be their lucky day. Hindalco came out with their annual reports today and it wasn't a pretty picture. I expect to see it open with a gap down tomorrow. 

I'm happy with the way things are turning out. So far I've been right about my targets 4/4 times with the exception of Hindalco. Let's see what's in store for tomorrow. Have a good evening folks. 

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Day Two Analysis

I had a good start yesterday. I am currently holding one lot of ONGC May futures, bought at 322, CMP 326.5. I don't think I will be trading today but if I do it will be one of these that I will trade with:

1. Buy BhartiArtl, Entry: 310. Target 320. Stop Loss: 304.

This is a good buy since it's just coming off the bottom Stochastic line and the bottom Bollinger band, indicating that it's been over-sold. I expect it to hit 340 sometime during the first week of June but for today I think a target of 320 is quite achievable IF the market supports.

2. Sell Hindalco, Entry 112. Target 106, 104. Stop Loss 114.

Hindalco is coming out with their quarterly results today. I don't know what to expect out of it but I hope that it will be bad. Yes I'm quite the pessimist. So even if the results are good 114 should be a good point to exit. Yes it is a gamble that i'm willing to take since the risk is very minimum.

That's all for today. I will be active on Twitter today, hopefully. Will try to give some updates there. Happy trading :)

Day One review - Monday, 27th May 2013

Well I had a good start. Although some of my entry points were not hit today, most of my targets are right on track. I was expecting the market to fall today but nonetheless, some trade did take place.
 
My calls for today were:

1. Buy ONGC, Entry: 320-322. Target: 342. Stop Loss: 317.

ONGC

I knew ONGC would bounce back from 320 and as expected, it did. It hit a day low of 320.5 and high of 329.45. I recommended buying June futures which hit a day low of 323.5 and high of 331.8. I did however end up buying May futures at 322 and am currently holding it at 326.5.

That is currently a profit of Rs.4500.

2. Buy OptoCircuits, Entry: 43.5-44. Target: 48. Stop Loss: 42.5.

OptoCircuit

Unfortunately Opto did not hit my entry point today. Again I expected the market to fall after which I would've entered at 44. But on the upside, the target of 48 was hit and a day high of 49.75 was made today and DAMN what a recovery that was! That graph looks beautiful doesn't it?
So after bouncing back from the (slightly miscalculated) bottom Bollinger band, my target was achieved,

3. Buy Adani Enterprises, Entry: above 215. Target 235. Stop Loss: 212.

AdaniEnter

I didn't trade in Adani today since I was quite hesitant to enter it at day low of 320 which it was trading at till 1:30 PM. I didn't think it would move much but boy was I wrong. I know my entry was above 215 but 220 was slightly too much. Anyway, day low of 219 and high of 227.40. Target on track!



















All in all I think it is a pretty good start. I'm at a profit of Rs.4500 at the end of Day One. I think I will realize my profit on ONGC at 330 tomorrow. I'll be giving out my trades for 28th May in some time now so stay tuned ;)

Time to make money

All right, lets get down to business.

The reason why I trade is so that I can make sufficient money to lead my life the way I want to, comfortably. Keeping that in mind, I intend on minimizing stress and anxiety when I get down to trading. The only way I've figured out to do that is by investing in Futures/Options on a daily, weekly and sometimes monthly basis. 

I don't intend on making "quick" money via a sharp increase/decrease in an hour or so based on some random news. I buy when I know the share is over-sold and I sell when I know it is over-bought. It's quite simple really. That way I can just wait for my trade to hit the target and I make sure it doesn't take more than a couple of weeks to do so.

So starting Monday, I will start trading in a few shares which I think will hit my target, in a day/week/month.
Since it will be a Futures trade, I will HAVE TO make sure that it's an achievable target within the expiry.

These will be my following trades, based on the expectations that Nifty will close around 5950 on Monday:

1. Buy ONGC, Entry: 320-322. Target: 342. Stop Loss: 317.

I would definitely recommend buying June futures since May derivatives contract will expire on the 30th. ONGC requires a few days to gain momentum, especially since it just had a big rally and it's again settling at the support levels.

2. Buy OptoCircuits, Entry: 43.5-44. Target: 48. Stop Loss: 42.5.

Expecting a bounce back from the lower Bollinger Band.

3. Buy Adani Enterprises, Entry: above 215. Target 235. Stop Loss: 212.

Adani has been jumping back up from 212 for quite some time now. Expecting the same to happen but results may vary depending on trading on 30th of May.

Again, the whole purpose of my trade is to make money on a daily or weekly basis. I do not want to sit in front of the terminal throughout the day waiting anxiously for my target to be hit. I give myself enough room to place my trade and carry on doing more important things while my money does the work for me.

I will be giving a few intra-day calls on Twitter if time permits, so stick around. 

Trading tips for short to medium term

Here I will be posting a few trading calls that I've made for the current day/week/month. I will use these posts as a diary to keep track of all the analysis I've made in the past and my success ratio along with it. It will help me analyse my logic better and also if someone happens to make some money out of it, even better.


Also I'd like to put a little disclaimer here. If somebody happens to stumble upon my little blog here and he/she starts following my calls, be warned, you will be doing so at your own risk. I am not enforcing this upon anyone, it is for my reference only. But if you think it should be good enough for you to follow, you will be doing it without me pointing a gun to your head.

All in all, I really hope to make something out of this blog. At the least I would like it to be my little document showing the analysis of the equities/futures/options that I've made and the success rate to go along with it.

So come Monday, 27 May 2014, I will be posting new trading tips and advice on the Indian markets everyday. Feel free to follow/scrutinize/critique by posts as you wish. And do let me know if my posts have helped you in any way. 

Stick around.

The Tricks of the Trade

I honestly don't look at trading and investing to be two disparate processes. Some people think that traders are hasty, good for nothing, short-term trading, long-term trouble seeking and worldwide destruction causing psychos who lack the ability to differentiate good news from the bad. And then there are some who think that investors are jobless rich hags who've got nothing better to do but to start a revolution among some bourgeoisie individuals who've got some spare money, to all invest into an "undervalued" company, soon to show good results based on a tip by a friend of a friend of a cousin of a HR manager working in the aforementioned company.

My view is that a trader is nothing but a short term investor and an investor is a long term trader. It's as simple as that. You follow certain signals and indicators, not necessarily on the charts, and you trade/invest in the company based on those signals for a specific period of time and make money. It's a simple concept which broken down to this simple form can be understood by the most common of the common man. The logic is just to make a "quick" buck to carry on doing things you actually love doing.

But the problem lies in the comprehensibility of the average Joe and the willingness to act upon the comprehension. Oftentimes I happen to meet some of these people who seem fascinated at first and then think of me as a shrewd little savant who tries to make fun of their cognitive abilities, when I explain to them how simple a process it really is.

Recently, there was one such incident where I happened to be in the same room as a long lost friend of mine, who I found out had been doing the mundane 9-5 shift for the past few years. He asked me what I did for a living and I told him I analyse the equity market and invest in certain companies to earn a profit. His next question was “Oh so you’re a share-holder is it? I would love to start with the whole shares thing. Can you teach me how it’s done?!” To which I said “Umm OK… I usually use some tools to draw conclusions as to which product to invest in and I hold till I make a profit or exit with a small loss.”

“So what do you have now?”

“What do you mean?”

“Well what shares have you bought?”

“Well I haven’t bought any of them, not in this market.”

“So you haven’t invested in anything now?”

“Of course I have, I have to make a living don’t I?”

“But you said you haven’t bought anything!”

“Sigh….”

And then prolongs a half hour lecture about short selling, futures and options trading, commodities, Forex  chart pattern recognition, signals and indicators, effects of the quarter/annual results on the company, etc. I wind up by saying that it’s really a simple process and if you understand the fundamentality of it all you can be really successful at it but people just make it complicated and difficult to understand.

The reply I get is “Sure, to Einstein’s like you it’s a piece of cake but I’m sure there’s a whole lot more to it for a beginner to understand. Or maybe you’re just not telling me the actual process and keeping it to yourself. You’re just giving me all this crap about signals and indicators to throw me off track. If it really was that simple everyone would be doing it!”

At times I wonder, maybe it’s too much for people to comprehend in such a small amount of time, but honestly there’s not much to understand. I guess people just don’t want to think that life is simple. They intentionally want to complicate it so that it becomes an excuse to not try out some things in life and enjoy the simplicities of it. Simplicity is the secret of life. The more you complicate a task, the more you suck the joy out of doing it.